A further update of my previous pieces previewing the Africa Cup of Nations and looking at the impact of the first matches.

Group A

Senegal are definitely out and Co-Host Equatorial Guinea are through. This leaves Zambia and Libya, although Libya need to beat Senegal and hope Zambia lose with a net movement in goal difference of at least three in their favour. We make the chance of that happening just 2.8%! If Zambia win they will win the group, which given the Ivory Coast will probably meet the runners up of this group, will be a prize worth fighting for.

Group B

Ivory Coast qualify for the second round comfortably and have eliminated Burkina Faso. Sudan must beat Burkina Faso and hope the Ivory Coast defeat Angola (again a net movement in goal difference of three is also required), identical to the situation in Group A. The chance in this instance is 8%. If Angola beat the Ivory Coast they will win the group.

Group C

Qualification is decided in this group with Gabon and Tunisia through, although they will battle to win the group. Morocco and Niger are playing for the wooden spoon of the group.

Group D

Still everything to play for in this group, unless you’re Botswana who are eliminated. Ghana are almost certain qualify (99.9%) but haven’t secured the group win. Guinea and Mali both have three points, but are seperated by large gap in goal difference (+4 to -1 respectively). However Mali are favourites to qualify as they take on Botswana while Guinea have to play the strongest team in the group. Guinea will be hoping Ghana rest players.

Knockout

In terms of the overall competition, we now see the following chances of progression for the teams who can still make it to the knockout phase. As you’d expect the Ivory Coast continue to look strong favourites for the title