Six Pointers

This blog is in part a response to a tweet we received asking what the chances of the Man Utd/Man City match being a title decider are. The race for the title would appear to be pretty much wrapped up (97% chance of Manchester United winning) but the race for Champions League football appears to be wide open.

Continue reading

Europa: The other competition

The Champions League knockout stage might have the glamour of Manchester United v Real Madrid, but what of its little brother (whatever AVB might say), the Europa League? We decided to look at our predictions for the Europa League knockout draw.

There are four English teams in the Europa league, Premier League position in brackets: Chelsea (4), Liverpool (8), Newcastle(15) and Tottenham (3).  This is double the amount that have made it to this stage in the previous two years. But how much further can they go?

Continue reading

Value for Money (continued)

Due to popular demand I’ve decided to look at the Castrol Edge Rankings of two more EPL teams that have had a lot of high profile transfer activity over the summer.

Liverpool

Liverpool has come under a lot of criticism from fans and critics that they haven’t bought enough players to make a strong squad. Ignoring the “one that got away” (Clint Dempsey), what was the quality of the players Liverpool did buy? All prices are given in millions of pounds and are estimates.

Continue reading

Some Graphic Illustration of This Season’s Premier League

This season’s Premier League has not let us down. With most teams having just four league games left, there is still all to play for at top of the table for the Manchester teams. At the other end of the table four teams are battling it out to stay in the top division and of course, there is also race for the fourth Champions League spot. I was interested in seeing how each team has featured in those battles. Drawing charts is usually the best way… Continue reading

Do Teams with Better Squad Depth Benefit during Christmas Fixtures? Ho.. Ho.. Ho

It’s almost Christmas again. I like Christmas. Not only do I get a holiday, there is also plenty of football to watch thanks to the Premier League. Not so lucky for the players though!

Teams often play up to four matches during the busy Christmas to New Year period in the space of less than 2 weeks.  What I started to wonder was which teams give their fans a merry time in the festive season, and which teams have been to too many Christmas parties.

Continue reading

On the Uselessness of Draws

How many times does a manager or a player claim “a draw was a good result?” Whether this is justifying the result after the fact (i.e. if you’ve been 3-0 down a draw is certainly a good result), or whether the team went out to play for a draw, I decided to see how often a draw really was a good result given the pre-match predictions.

Who’s Happy With a Draw?

A draw is better than a loss and the one league point it brings is some comfort to fans, but more often it is two points lost rather than one point gained. Consider a match between evenly matched sides. In that case the home team has about a 50% chance of victory, and the away team about a 25% chance. Continue reading

Summer Transfers 2011: Part One

It’s been a busy summer, with the usual frantic end to the transfer window. I’ve been looking at the excellent data provided by BBC Football, and playing around with different visualisations of transfers involving English and Scottish clubs.

I grabbed the transfers for the entire window and it’s such a rich data set that one post is not really enough space to visualise it all properly. For this first post I thought I’d just display the basic patterns that appear by club.

Movers and Shakers

Continue reading